No Parking newsletter III

An all-Ukraine newsletter today. Watch the Kerch Bridge get blown up (again).

Ukraine may be done with their latest round of clandestine attacks on Russia. Now we await Russia’s response.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. President Donald Trump that Russia will retaliate for the attacks, which probably means a barrage of missiles and drones on Ukrainian urban centers and infrastructure.

Russia launched a record 472 drones in a single-night attack on Ukrainian cities last week and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t top that number in the near future with its response. Ukraine has the anti-aircraft guns and ammo to deal with drones, but defending against cruise and ballistic missiles is a different game.

Ukrainian military leadership will have to make some difficult choices about what to protect with their limited air defense assets. The Trump Administration appears to have no interest in supplying Ukraine with any more Patriot missile defense batteries that are Ukraine’s only viable defense against Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine is believed to have eight Patriot batteries at the moment, but it's not clear how many actual missiles they have.

The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, was behind the attack. It took place at five Russian air bases across the country from Murmansk in the far northwest to Amur in the far southeast. Ukrainian planners no doubt targeted deep in Russia to send a message that Russia’s military assets were safe nowhere, even more than 3,000 miles away in a remote territory on the Chinese border.

The Ukrainians constructed covert drone-carrying lorries, parked them outside the air bases, remotely opened them up, and unleashed swarms of small explosive-laden drones that hit several strategic bombers. The exact damage isn’t yet clear. Satellite imagery shows what looks like seven destroyed long-range bombers at a base in eastern Siberia. Ukraine claimed 41 aircraft were destroyed or damaged, so take that as the high end of estimates.

The aircraft destroyed or damaged include Tu-95 and Tu-22m nuclear-capable long-range bombers. Russia has used both models of now-aging bombers to lob cruise missiles at Ukraine since its invasion in March 2022 and Tu-95s were used as recently as last week, according to the BBC.

Russia’s air force fielded 47 Tu-95s and 57 Tu-22ms at the beginning of the year, according to Flight Global’s latest air forces report. Damaged aircraft may be a significant setback for the Aerospace Forces if it has to dig deep in its stores of out-of-production parts to repair them.

Ukraine claimed that a handful of other aircraft were damaged besides those bomber models as well, including an A-50 early warning aircraft, Tu-160 bombers, An-12 transporters, and Il-78 refuelers. A-50s are expensive to maintain and necessary for Russia’s air component in the war. Still, you always have to take numbers from the SBU with a grain of salt, so its difficult to just how much this attack has hurt Russia’s offensive abilities.

Ultimately, the attack is far more impactful on a symbolic and psychological level. The attack will boost morale among weary Ukrainians and sends a message to both Russia and to Ukraine’s Western allies that Ukraine is throwing in the towel or lacks any leverage, which is particularly important amid “peace talks” in Istanbul.

But perhaps most importantly, the attack is a huge embarrassment for Russia, which fancies itself as a military giant on the level of the U.S. and China, but that apparently can’t safeguard some of its most important nuclear delivery assets stored deep within its border.

Russian military leadership will now have to bolster security around its air bases and spend far more time (and money) being suspicious of vans, trucks, and other vehicles at their borders and near important military assets.

Two days later on Tuesday, Ukraine attacked the Kerch Bridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea with underwater explosives. The SBU said it used about 2,400 lbs of explosives in the operation and “severely damaged” the bridge’s underwater structure.

Again, take it with a grain of salt — traffic was back up and running across the bridge within hours, making this attack far less effective than Ukraine’s previous two attacks on the bridge that involved missiles and seaborne drones and shut down the bridge for several days each.

Here’s the video from the SBU:

I expect Ukraine to continue to pursue asymmetrical tactics as Western deliveries of conventional military hardware deliveries slow. With few conventional military options on hand to break the stalemate along the frontline in the east, Ukraine has to find ways to level the playing field ahead of any actual peace talks.

While the SBU may exaggerate the impact of their operations, it would be foolish to underestimate their capabilities, creativity, and willingness to invest significant effort into their operations. Ukraine has a long pedigree of clandestine success and the SBU’s experience since the full-scale invasion will only make it a more effective outfit.

This is all happening during “peace talks” in Istanbul that I’m going to call “talks” from now on. Dialog is always better than nothing, but this is not how I see peace coming to Ukraine. Russia’s current offering is a non-starter for Ukraine. Ukraine wants Russia to return hundreds of children taken from occupied territories back to Russia and I just don’t see that happening on a large scale. On a positive note, both sides have agreed to another prisoner exchange.

Trump seems to have entirely lost interest in the situation in Ukraine, so I don’t expect him to be involved in much of the back and forth over the next few weeks. He’s trying to pass his budget bill and will likely focus his attention on domestic issues over the next several weeks.

U.N. says Russia’s “human safari” attacks on Kherson civilians amount to crimes against humanity.

If you’re unfamiliar, Russian drone operators have been dropping explosives on civilians in Kherson and its suburbs since late last summer. The U.N.’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine put out a report last week on what’s colloquially called the “human safari.”

There are hundreds of documented cases of these attacks. Russian operators regularly drop grenades or mortars on people waiting for the bus, commuting in their cars, and walking home with groceries.

One woman said she and her husband were targeted walking home in Poniativka in September 2024:

“My husband died in my arms, bleeding to death, because the ambulance did not arrive on time. I tried to stop the bleeding with a T-shirt, but it was not enough.”

Videos of these attacks from the operator perspective typically only show up in pro-Russian Telegram channels, probably because the operators aren’t all too keen to post them on social media. U.N. investigators say they geolocated 120 such videos.

The report doesn’t really mean much in the big scheme of things. The U.N. has become famous for its “deep concern” and strongly worded statements over human rights violations and seeming unwillingness or complete inability to do anything concrete about those violations.

This sort of determination is useful in a post-war period when crimes can be prosecuted, but I don’t expect any Russian soldiers or commanders to be held accountable for their actions in Ukraine.

Still, it's good to see some outside acknowledgement of what’s happening in Kherson and its suburbs and the report gathers useful information on Russian strategy. This will hopefully bring the issue more attention.

It's completely inexcusable and blatant targeting of civilians by Russian drone operators. It’s a clear policy for local commanders at the very lowest level and likely well known and tacitly approved at higher political levels. In fact, the U.N. report calls it a “coordinated state policy.”

It’s unclear why Russia is “wasting” resources targeting civilians in a city across a river they’ll likely never cross and occupy. The report said that some Telegram posts of attacks also include text telling people to leave the area. The attacks have compelled some Ukrainians to leave their homes for safer areas, but I can’t imagine this is the ultimate goal.

“Drones were attacking everything; minibuses, cars, pedestrians etc… every time you went out of the house, you had to check the sky and look out for a buzzing sound and, in any case, run.” - testimony from a now-former resident of Antonivka.

If anything, it seems the Russian military wants to demoralize civilians and punish them for effectively rejecting the Russian occupation of Kherson at the beginning of the war.

Andrew Perpetua, who runs the ukrdailyupdate map, recently posted an FPV video of such an attack on civilians in Bilozerka (Білозерка) along with geolocations of the attacks: https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1930146619476812033

Abuse and exploitation of migrants documented at Russian drone factory

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime earlier this month released a report documenting abuse and exploitation of migrants and students at a Russian drone factory at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, about 500 miles east of Moscow. Read it here.

Migrant workers, mostly women from Latin America and Africa, were told they were signing up for a work-study program in Russia, but were put to work at the Yelabuga drone factory when they arrived at Alabuga. Students at a nearby polytechnic school were also reportedly put to work at the factory.

Workers describe long hours, harsh treatment from management, and exposure to caustic materials required for the manufacture of Geran drones. Workers have also reportedly been injured by Ukrainian drone strikes on the factory.